Vandita Pant, the Chief Financial Officer at BHP, believes that the international copper market could enter a sustained supply deficit from the year 2028. This comes with the increase in annual supply needed by the middle of the 2030s to satisfy growing consumption.
Speaking at the recently held FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant explained that the shortfall would be equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines comparable in size to the Escondida mine. Escondida, located in Chile, is currently the biggest producer of the red metal globally.
Declining production from existing deposits is already putting pressure on supply, making new mine development necessary to maintain output even before future demand growth is considered, she said.
Traditional sources of consumption, including population growth, industrial development and urbanization, are increasingly being joined by expanding digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment and the global shift towards cleaner energy. Latest projections show annual global copper demand rising to more than 50 million metric tons by 2050.
From data centers alone, consumption of the red metal could hit roughly 3 million metric tons per year over the same period.
Pant, however, drew a distinction between the anticipated long-term supply gap and immediate market shortages. She explained that temporary imbalances can develop when mining companies fail to achieve their production targets, leaving the market tighter than expected even before the structural deficit materializes.
Recent mine disruptions and operational difficulties have already weighed on output, while the availability of copper concentrate has become increasingly constrained. Just recently, the International Copper Study Group lowered its forecast for global mine production growth for the year to 1.3%, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China and Chile. It nevertheless expects growth to strengthen to over 3% in 2027.
In addition, Pant also noted that near-term consumption could fluctuate depending on expectations for AI-driven demand and investment activity in copper markets. However, she maintained that such short-term movements do not alter the company’s longer-term supply and demand outlook.
BHP, the world’s largest copper producer, has been expanding its focus on the metal. Copper accounted for over 50% of its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year.
The company expects its internally developed projects to increase its attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035. It is targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years.
Planned growth initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as the development of the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S.
If this prediction of a structural supply shortage materializes, many entities like Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from the added demand and rising prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production level.
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