NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year Monday after four years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has surged approximately 119% from its bear-market low on October 12, 2022. That session saw the index close at 3,577.03, its lowest since November 2020. By Friday, it finished at 7,811.54, marking a 14.1% increase for 2026. Over the latest week, the index also gained 1.2%.
This cycle marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. It is also the seventh to last at least four years. Its 119% rise is below the average gain of 184% recorded in the study’s bull markets. For comparison, the 2009-to-2020 cycle rose 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 run reached 582%. These earlier periods remain among the strongest long-term gains in the analysis.
Historically, performances in the fifth year have generally been positive, but results vary by cycle. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. When bull markets hit a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Past data also shows an average maximum decline of about 14% during fifth years. These figures reflect past market cycles and do not predict the current trend.
Corporate Earnings Support Market Growth
Earnings reports continue to bolster the rally. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 profits were 29.6% higher than a year earlier as of October 9. This would be the third quarter in a row with earnings growth above 25%. By the end of September, the growth estimate was 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies that reported, 84% beat analysts’ earnings forecasts. Their combined earnings surpassed estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts predict strong profit growth will continue through 2026. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 27.6% from the previous year. Full-year earnings growth is estimated at 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research also indicates these companies account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates. Technology-related sectors remain key drivers of earnings upgrades.
Rising Interest Rates Mark Fifth Year of Gains
The market’s rise occurs amid increasing interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, while inflation stayed elevated. The September projections showed median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as stocks enter their fifth year of recovery. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. That session saw the S&P 500 rise 0.6%, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.6%. Stocks in the U.S. are now near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.